The Macalope Daily: Review time

Every once in a while it’s important to take a break from all the ridiculous things that people are saying about Apple these days and instead reflect upon the ridiculous things they were saying a year or two ago.

These days you can’t shake a stick without hitting a company that’s getting into the tablet business, a business that was monkey business before the iPad revolutionized the category. Google, Amazon, and Microsoft have all had to respond to Apple’s lead, but it wasn’t that long ago that one pundit thought this was all just a flash in the pan.

Yes, back in March of 2011, Katherine Noyes declared tablets “a fad”, saying:

After all, the devices really don’t offer anything you can’t get on a smartphone or a notebook computer, and their form factor is inconvenient, at best.

Oh, totally. And Noyes had a reason why iPads seemed to be inexplicably selling like their likewise flat counterparts, pancakes.

Purely marketing, I believe.

Purely. Marketing. You see, the wise members of the open-source community are immune to contrivances developed by the modern corporatist machine to keep us under its iron boot. Contrivances such as marketing, fashion, and personal hygiene.

Mark my words: The device—and all the others of its ilk that have sprung up for a piece of the action—are nothing more than a passing fad, at least in the mainstream.

Ah, the Macalope did indeed mark them and is here a year and a half later to refer to said marker for personal amusement. He reserves the right to continue to bring this up in perpetuity because laughter is the best medicine. Other than penicillin.

But Noyes is far from the only one whose predictions have fallen flat. While 2012 is not over yet, CNet’s Peter Yared was perhaps a little too enthusiastic about the trouble Apple would face this year:

The battle is on to unseat Apple where Steve Jobs made it shine—and mighty Apple is already looking at risk.

The pundits just can’t bear it that Apple refuses to succumb to their “how the mighty have fallen” story line. The fact that the company shows no signs of collapsing doesn’t seem to stop them from typing it up, though.

Conclusion: most notebook computers will adopt the MacBook Air form factor, and Windows will not only maintain its tremendous market share, but possibly even retake Mac’s recent gains.

Not really a good year to predict this, as PC shipments fell while customers waited for Windows 8 to arrive. Things may shift a bit in the fourth quarter with the launch of Windows 8, but Apple has pretty consistently beat PC vendors to capture more market share, not lose it. Also, turns out copying Apple’s hardware look and bolting a VGA port on the side isn’t really a great strategy for success.

Tablets are a category that Apple completely dominates, with 80 percent market share. Android competitors have flailed, but Amazon’s Android-based Kindle Fire is likely to outsell the iPad in 2012 due to its low price ($199).

Uh-huh. While sales of the Kindle Fire are up, estimates of Apple’s market share are 56.7 percent. With the iPad mini, the chances of the Kindle Fire passing the iPad in sales this year seem to be hovering around “fat.”

Keep plugging away, pundits! The Macalope’s sure you’ll find a nut one of these years!

[Editors’ Note: In addition to being a mythical beast, the Macalope is not an employee of Macworld. As a result, the Macalope is always free to criticize any media organization. Even ours.]

Subscribe to the iOS Tips & Trends Newsletter

Comments