Stupid games: Fun with estimates


Bad news for Apple (a-gain). Some analyst adjusted his own numbers based on, well, let's say voodoo. It's not literally voodoo, but it might as well be.

Business Insider reports "There is 'lackluster interest' in the Apple Watch, says UBS." (Tip o' the antlers to @JonyIveParody.)

If you were wondering on what analysts base their far-fetched numbers of how many Watches Apple might sell, it's search activity. That is why so many analysts have said Apple will sell exactly "cute cat pictures" of Apple Watches.

Interest in the Apple Watch is "tepid," says UBS analyst Steven Milunovich.

Well, obviously. They can't make enough to keep up with demand and they may have sold more than all Android Wear devices to date so dkaiekadlakvalsxlks

Milunovich is lowering his estimates for Apple Watch sales in fiscal year 2016 based on "global search activity."

See, it turns out Apple won't sell "cute cat pictures" of Apple Watches, they will only sell "justin bieber mug shot" of Apple Watches. Hence the adjustment, you see. Very disappointing.

The crux of this is that people apparently aren't searching on the Apple Watch as much as they did other Apple products. And because the Watch isn't being searched on as much as some of the most popular products ever, demand must be "tepid".

Thirty-one million watches is still an impressive number.

Impressive, but tepid. Impressive but lackluster. These are things that Business Insider thinks make sense to write and are not at all bonkers and contradictory. And, really, who among us is not impressed by things that lack luster? "My, that shade of taupe certainly is impressively un-noteworthy."

But, the fact that he's seeing weak interest shortly after the product was released is worrisome.

"Weak interest." People literally cannot get enough of them and...

You know it's a sunny day where the Macalope is right now. Not only that, somewhere close by Age of Ultron is showing. Why is he inside trying to choke back this government-grade surplus cheese?

Oh, right. He gets paid to make fun of it. How could he have forgotten that part? Very silly. Let's continue.

In his note, he says part of the reason interest is subdued is because of Apple's watch sales process. People need appointments to test out the watch in the store.

And you have to get an appointment and try one on before you can buy noooo of course you don't.

One problem with the word of mouth idea: We're skeptical word of mouth will do much with the watch.

One problem: We have a knee-jerk negative response to everything Apple. Yes, that's certainly been a big problem for the company to date.

[all the eye rolls]

The Macalope's house is not unbiased by any means, but Mrs. Macalope ordered a Watch after hearing just a few details of this furry beast's experience with his (now delivered). So, one problem for Business Insider: The Macalope says word of mouth will be huge for the Watch.

See? Two can play that game. It's a stupid and pointless game in which the players have no means of affecting the outcome, but two can play it. So, basically exactly like Candy Land or Old Maid.

After a few days of using the watch, we've found that its main strength is as a watch, which is not super compelling to most users.

Well, to each his own, but that hasn't been the Macalope's experience at all.

Ultimately, of course, Milunovich's estimates were... Milunovich's estimates. Not Apple's and not any kind of objective barometer. They're about as relevant a measure to the Watch's success as the results of playing Candy Land are to one's gaming ability.

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