Market sharing: These predictions are useless

Macalope

Remember market share? Turns out people are still trying to make a big deal out of market share, even after history has shown it really isn’t that big a deal, at least when it comes to Apple.

Well, a research firm is, which is not technically a person. This one in particular is more like a clown rodeo, except actually funny.

“Here's why the iPhone isn't going to catch up to Android any time soon.” (The Macalope’s allowing a link here because BI is mostly just reporting a research firm’s numbers.)

Apple might trounce Android manufacturers when it comes to the profitability of its smartphones…

But…

…but Google's mobile operating system dominates in the numbers game.

Uh, you do know that profit is a number, right? Pretty big one in this case, too. Whoo. Kinda… wow.

Research firm IDC is forecasting that Android will retain its 81.1% worldwide market share of smartphone sales right through to 2019

IDC. Hmm. Why does that acronym sound familiar? IDC. IDC.

I.

D.

C.

Hmm. Hmm. HMM.

“Why IDC Predicts Windows Phone Will Surpass iOS by 2016

“Android growth to end in 2012 as Microsoft begins to Steal Google and Apple’s thunder”

Oh, Aye Dee SEEEEEEE. That IDC. The one that was saying back in 2012 that Windows Phone was going to surge and steal share away from both iOS and Android. Well, that certainly happened so there’s no reason at all not to take their current predictions at face value and wait for them to inevitably play out, just as their ones from three years ago did.

By the way, the Macalope hopes you are all enjoying your Windows Phones as much as he’s enjoying his. We all own Windows Phones now.

As dumb as their 2012 predictions were, in 2011 IDC was predicting that Windows Phone’s 2015 market share would be 20.3 percent. Here in actual 2015 instead of IDC Windows Phone fanfic 2015 it is, uh, not.

So where does the iPhone fit into this? Looking forward, IDC says that "markets with the biggest growth opportunity are extremely price sensitive." This translates into new consumers in emerging economies looking for low-cost smartphones — a demographic with which Apple is unlikely to make any significant in-roads.

Just like what happened in China.

Wait…

As tens of millions of people in emerging markets start buying smartphones, the ongoing Android price war will make the platform more attractive than ever — securing Google's lead for years to come.

Of course a lot of low-end smartphones ship with forked versions of Android, not Google Android, but whatever.

The Macalope is not saying Apple will slowly start taking share away from Android. What he is saying is that trying to predict what smartphone market share will look like four years from now is like trying to play Crossy Road with a burlap sack full of chiggers on your head. It’s dumb, you don’t do very well, and you get chiggers in your ears.

It’s almost exactly like that. Possibly with even more chiggers.

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