The boy who cried short: Consistently bearish on AAPL

Macalope

You know that disclaimer at the bottom of investment ads that say “past performance is not a guarantee of future results”? It’s not really true of hedge fund manager Doug Kass because we know he’s going to short AAPL no matter what.

“Why I Think Apple's Stock Bites” (Tip o’ the antlers to @mylestaylor)

Who needs an Apple Watch when they can tell what time it is by Doug Kass’s hourly proclamations about how you should short Apple’s stock?

What did Kass find in Apple’s quarterly results to complain about this time?

…the $12.5 billion in quarterly China sales were down from $13.2 billion in the previous period…

Allow the horny one to introduce the esteemed hedge fund manager to a little thing known as “cyclicality”.

…and from the +120% year-over-year increase.

Indeed. Apple’s revenue in China was only up 99 percent this quarter.

The Macalope is surprised he could write “only” in that sentence and not have his screen blow up from irony. This aluminum is pretty sturdy.

Further, the company modestly missed analysts' unit estimates in every major product line…

Modestly missing analysts’ incorrect estimates is the worst possible economic indicator that can be conceived.

Personally, I continue to look at Apple through the prism of a bear.

So, no change from your view in 2012 or 2014. Because, you know, just to be clear, if you had bought AAPL at the start of 2012, you would have doubled your money by now.

The key to my short case for AAPL lies in the notion that the most-recent product upgrade cycle was the last important one that Apple will see over the next few years.

I know nothing about Apple’s plans and I can’t imagine they’re cooking anything up!

While the iPhone 7 lies ahead for fiscal 2016, I don't expect we'll see much of a technological change from the iPhone 6.

You don’t because you choose not to. Which, OK, your choice. But that doesn’t mean it’s what will happen. You’ve been saying iPhone innovation is dead for three years and people are buying more iPhones than ever. Kass is like one of the prisons in the allegory of the cave who when history offers him a mirror says “Nah, I’m good just staring at the wall.”

Instead of writing all these love letters to Apple, Doug, the Macalope has a better idea: Why don’t you just tell us when you’re not shorting AAPL? That’d probably be more efficient.

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