lays odds on potential CES announcements

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What happens in Vegas gets bet on by everybody else. has released its betting odds for potential CES announcements this week.

First, a quick primer: When an oddsmaker says the odds of an event happening are +150 or 16 percent, the “+150” part refers to the return on the wager, and the percentage is the expected likelihood that the stated prediction will actually happen. (There’s a 16 percent chance I could have written this paragraph better, so if you bet $100 that I would do so, your wager pays off at $250—your original hundred, plus the 150.)

With that out of the way, says the odds that Verizon will announce an exact launch date for a CDMA iPhone are +250 or 28 percent. Odds that Macworld’s servers will buckle following such an announcement are closer to 88 percent. places the odds that Motorola will unveil a 10-inch tablet at +300 or 25 percent; odds that I won’t buy one are approaching 100 percent.

The site places the odds that Samsung will debut its first Google TV at +400 or 20 percent; odds that no one will buy one are perhaps a surer bet than the one about me and a Motorola tablet. (That +400/20 percent matches the odds that Sony Ericsson will debut a PlayStation phone.)

Odds of a more intriguing HP/Palm tablet are +350 or 22 percent. Odds that you’ll be disappointed because offers no apparent way to actually wager on any of these items are -200/92 percent. Of course, if you're a CES attendee and you're really disappointed, we're guessing you could find somewhere else to gamble in Nevada.

Finally, odds that this article is wrapping up a bit abruptly are also extremely good.

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