Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster predicts that the average iOS device owner will increase app purchases by 61 percent this year and that the outlook for the App Store is good. So, time once again for some silly pundits to ask “What wine goes with crow?”
The Macalope hates to keep harping on how wrong Henry Blodget and others were... HAHAHAHA, oh, God, can't say that with a straight face! He loves it. He really does.
But remember that Blodget’s original argument why Apple should be shaking in its stylish and user-friendly boots was because Android ate all the market share and developers were going to stop making software for iOS because developers go where the people are even if those people don’t buy software.
Well, he didn’t say that last bit because that would have made his argument look asinine. When he was really just shooting for dunderheaded.
Phillip Elmer-Dewitt summarizes some of Munster's notes:
Apple’s App Store has more than 425,000 apps. The Android Market has 200,000. In May, Google (GOOG) announced its 4.5 billionth app download, compared with Apple's 15 billion as of July 7.
Of course, there are other stores on Android, but you’ve got to think that Google’s is the largest, so the total number of downloads is probably still significantly less than for iOS, despite all the Android devices floating around out there. Yet, we spent much of the last year hearing how it was the PC wars all over again and meep morp boodily bonk iPhone doomed.
Horace Dediu articulated something that’s been rattling around just under the Macalope’s antlers for some time. That is that developers no longer need or can afford to concentrate solely on one platform. Development, marketing, and distribution costs are lower than they used to be—so are average selling prices.
So the very reasons which are driving developers to spread their bets across all and any new platforms should indicate the potential for new platforms and the sustainability of small platforms. The thesis that one dominant platform wins the mobile “war” is naive.
Sing it, sister.
People have been suggesting that because the Android Marketplace is growing faster than the App Store, that it will soon catch up to and pass it. The Macalope’s not saying he know what’s going to happen, but if Macworld withheld his alfalfa and forced him to guess, he’d say that at most they’ll reach roughly parity. If you’re a developer, you’re going to develop for where the money is, which is currently iOS. The reason the Android Marketplace is growing so fast is because it’s got a lot of catching up to do.
That was just a joke about the alfalfa by the way. The Macalope’s got his own supplier. He could hook you up, if you want.
[Editors’ Note: In addition to being a mythical beast, the Macalope is not an employee of Macworld. As a result, the Macalope is always free to criticize any media organization. Even ours.]