The Macalope Daily: Crystal bull gazing

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Heading into Macworld|iWorld, the fine folks at iSuppli are apparently attempting some kind of long-distance deposit into our virtual punch bowl.

Windows Phone Will Be More Popular Than iOS By 2015

Oh, really? Wow. OK, well, the Macalope supposes that’s possible. Somewhat laughable, but possible.

iSuppli predicts that, by 2015, Android will have 58.1 percent, Windows Phone 9 With PlaysForSure Kinect Technologies for Workgroups will have 16.7 percent, and the iPhone will have 16.6 percent. Look at the projections and you’ll see the relentless climb of Android and Windows Phone as the iPhone stalls right now and starts to decline.

Yeah, that’s convenient when you’re making a three-year projection that you want to make headlines. Ah, and how the technology press loves a story like this!

As you can see from these predictions, however, Windows Phone is only besting iOS by a small margin. Even so, gaining a strong foothold in the market and stealing some share from Apple is certainly something to comment about, especially when you consider Windows Phone’s market share in 2011 was less than 2 percent.

Would be something to comment about. Would be, if it ever were to happen.

Did the conditional tense of the English language just up and die without the Macalope being informed of it?

Once again, the Macalope will take pains to point out that he really doesn’t care if the market share numbers do turn out to be exactly what iSuppli is projecting for Apple by 2015—or worse. As an iPhone user, it simply does not matter as long as apps continue to be written for the platform and sold at low, low prices—which they will, as iPhone users are the ones buying apps. As someone concerned about Apple’s continued existence it doesn’t matter, because even if the company is only garnering 16.6 percent of the market, it’ll still be garnering most of the profit.

Anyone remember profit? No? OK, moving right along.

Click through on that last link and look at the line for Microsoft’s smartphone operating systems. The company’s in a pretty big hole and is banking on these Nokia phones to help dig it out.

Given the partnership between Nokia and Microsoft, the companies have the necessary resources to use in promoting and developing the Windows Phone platform.

It’s interesting how Microsoft and Nokia have “resources” while Apple, we’re left to imagine, has a couple of Space Food sticks, a monkey on a unicycle, and an LP of Get The Knack. Still, resources aren’t really what Microsoft and Nokia are lacking. What they’re lacking is a fricking time machine that will let them go back to 2007 when their phone would have been more easily able to carve out a niche in this market.

Personally, the Macalope thinks the Nokia hardware looks terrific and Windows Phone 7 is, believe it or not, his second-favorite smartphone operating system. So, he hopes Microkia (which sounds like a place to buy affordable Swedish furniture for doll houses) does manage to climb back into this game.

While iSuppli believes Microsoft and Apple will be duking it out for market share, the firm doesn’t believe Android’s market share will be greatly impacted.

Of course not. Android, you see, is too big to fail, so it will only ever go upwards. Well, except for last quarter when it appears that it might have gone down.

Other than that.

This, to the horny one, is completely bass-ackwards. How does it make sense that Microsoft is going to steal market share from the company with the highest customer satisfaction in the industry, particularly when it’s obvious that their main target is Android?

The Macalope supposes that just as nobody back in the 1990s lost their job by recommending Microsoft, no analyst gets questioned by predicting Android will continue to gain market share. Eventually that’s going to get a little uncomfortable as these projections go further out and analysts have to start putting Android at more than 100 percent to make the line continue upwards.

[Editors’ Note: In addition to being a mythical beast, the Macalope is not an employee of Macworld. As a result, the Macalope is always free to criticize any media organization. Even ours.]

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