That’s it, kids! We’re calling it!
Yes, it’s been six months since Google CEO Eric “Cuckoo for Cocoa Puffs” Schmidt told us that, in six months, developers would be shipping on Android first.
Aaaaaaaaand they are not.
Wow! Who could have called that?
Oh, that’s right! We all did! Give yourself a pat on the back!
OK, that’s enough. Don’t overdo it. It wasn’t that hard.
Back in December, the Macalope translated Schmidt’s Nostradumbassisms thusly (Macworld Insider link):
Shorter Schmidt: “Do you smell burnt toast?”
And the Macalope stands by that assessment.
Anyone not smelling burnt toast knew that this situation was not going to turn around in six months. And MG Siegler backs up the fact that this hasn’t happened.
In the hearts and minds of top app developers, it’s iOS first and Android second—or not at all.
The same is true for the vast majority of new startups—I talk with dozens each week. The refrain: iOS first. Android second. Down the road. At some point. Maybe.
And if you don’t believe Siegler, a study by Flurry backs him up.
Nearly seven of every 10 apps being created in the first quarter of 2012 were for the iOS platform, with the remaining three going to Android, according to new data released today by research firm Flurry Analytics. iOS generates twice as many apps as Android despite Google’s mobile operating system commanding 50.8 percent of the smartphone market compared with Apple’s 31.4 percent, according to ComScore data release last week.
Google either doesn’t know how to fix this problem or has completely lost control of the situation. Or both.
Well, yes, it’s got to be both. Android is a fragmented platform with a user base that doesn’t buy a lot of apps. Carriers control their ecosystem and carriers have no interest in providing software updates, so users get abandoned on Outdated Release Island.
If you’re living in Google Fantasy Land (worst theme park ever), you might think that shipping a few Nexus phones and tablets will magically cure the problem. That might improve some aspects, but it’ll make others worse. Finally, it can’t help Google’s case if even its market-share advantage is slipping, which it may be, at least in the U.S.
Someone at Google needs to tell Schmidt it’s under-promise and over-deliver. Not the other way around. We’ll check on Schmidt’s prediction that most TVs would ship with Google TV in a few weeks but—SPOILER ALERT—that’ll be wrong, too.
[Editors’ Note: In addition to being a mythical beast, the Macalope is not an employee of Macworld. As a result, the Macalope is always free to criticize any media organization. Even ours.]