The Macalope Daily: Windows Phoney baloney

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What’s that? No, it’s not Apple’s Ping. (What’s that?) It’s a reminder that the Macalope set three months ago finally going off:

Follow up on Piecyk’s 3Q estimate

Aren’t computers wonderful? Used to be you’d have to write something down in a date keeper to remind you to follow up when you think someone’s going to be proven laughably wrong.

Now, the Macalope already touched on this on Saturday, but he thinks this is worth doing a “deep dive” into. He wants to “drill down” on this and really “point” at it and “laugh” a lot.

Back in April, BTIG’s Walter Piecyk downgraded Apple, predicting a big revenue miss this quarter because, well, the Macalope will let Walter explain.

“As Android’s initial popularity continues to fade because of its uneven and fragmented performance and BlackBerry falls further into oblivion, there is renewed hope that Microsoft and Nokia will be able to produce a viable alternative to Apple,” Piecyk wrote to investors. “These two giant companies and former industry leaders will clearly be putting significant resources behind any new product launched. We expect wireless operators to join in that investment as they increasingly fear Apple’s stranglehold on their margins.”

Uh-huh. Sure.

So, how’d that work out?

The millions of dollars being spent by Microsoft marketing its Windows Phone platform will have barely any effect on sales in the US, with the total number of handsets running its software expected to rise to 5m of the 123m smartphones sold there this year, according to new estimates from the research company Strategy Analytics.

Kinda figured.

…[Neil Mawston, executive director of Strategy Analytics] warns that the high licence costs of Microsoft’s software are holding back its wider adoption by handset vendors – while carriers’ concentration on Apple’s iPhone, which they subsidise heavily in the hope of attracting premium customers, is cementing that company’s position in the market.

Look, we Apple fans really wanted Windows Phone to succeed. Well, a little bit. Just a smidge. A tad. An inkling of success. A modicum. Maybe a dram.

Why? Well, because it’s different. It’s not just a “me, too” of iOS like Android is. Unfortunately, it’s different but not deep enough to make a lasting impression. Not to mention the fact that Microsoft, in typical Microsoft fashion, is pulling the rug out from under Windows Phone 7 owners because progress ever marches on and sucks to be you. But you’ll thank them for it later, after you buy Windows Phone 8 units that—this time, totally and for sure, you can trust Microsoft—will be upgradeable (not a guarantee of upgradeability, void where prohibited by law).

Meanwhile the iPhone 3GS, which came out 10,000 years ago in technology time, continues to chug merrily along—admittedly, sometimes huffing and puffing—into its fourth year on the market.

It’s possible that Piecyk’s estimates could still somehow be correct for other reasons than Windows Phone. But it’s sure clear that the threat of carriers pushing devices people don’t want on their customers isn’t causing Apple any consternation.

[Editors’ Note: In addition to being a mythical beast, the Macalope is not an employee of Macworld. As a result, the Macalope is always free to criticize any media organization. Even ours.]

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