My two cents worth: I am in the wrong business. I think I’m going to quit reporting and become a financial analyst. I’m pretty sure I can do the job, and I’ll tell you why.
Today Prudential Securities analyst Kimberly Alexy
said that Apple
“could possibly miss its top-line forecast for the current quarter.” Huh?
Now let me get this straight. Apple “could possibly miss its top-line forecast.” I assume that means it could also make it’s top-line forecast. I could have told you that. What’s more, I haven’t even found any odds from Ms. Alexy. Heck, even weather forecasters give you that much (“85 percent change of rain”).
And what exactly are her statements based on? There is no proof offered that the company will miss the forecast. So if I own shares in Apple, I should run out and sell because there’s a possibility they will miss the target. Or should I buy because there’s a possibility they will make the target?
Quite frankly there is a possibility of anything happening and statements like this are a great way to cover your butt. If she’s right, than you heard it from her first — and if she’s wrong, she only said a “possibility” not a certainty.
As a financial analyst, public statements should have to be proven in some way; after all, these views can affect a company stock.
I realize other people’s jobs always sound easier than your own, but in my line of work, I have to worry about facts. I can’t play the odds on such things — I’m expected to get it right.
Besides, how many times have the analysts been wrong about Apple? I lost track loooooong ago.
No, forget this reporting gig. It’s an analyst’s life for me.