Informa Media Group reported on Tuesday that it doesn’t expect to see any growth in global commercial music sales before 2005. The company published a new report called The Global Music Industry (3rd Edition).
The report’s author, Simon Dyson, estimates that 2003 will see the fourth consecutive year of falling music sales revenue. Dyson predicts an 8.9 percent decrease for 2003, to US$28.2 billion. CD sales are forecast to decrease a third year in a row to 2.1 billion units, or 8 percent, according to the report.
Apple’s iTunes Music Store and other online commercial music download services may offer a glimmer of hope, according to Dyson, but he also suggests that the significance of Internet-based sales “has been exaggerated and will not prove to be the industry’s saviour in the short- to medium-term.”
In fact, Dyson’s report banks on his prediction that the music industry’s growth in 2005 will be the result of “some success in the battle against file sharing and CD copying,” rather than true economic improvement. By 2008, said the report, digital sales will still only account for 5.7 percent of the global total.
“The success of the new download services proves there is a viable market for legitimate digital sales, but the music companies must act decisively to stop the growth of the illegal services and the widespread copying of CDs,” he said.
The 194 report, entitled Global Music Industry (3rd Edition), is available from Informa for US$975 (£650). Visit the Web site for details.