The Macalope: They never learn


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With rumors coming from the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times, a lot of people are abuzz about the possibility of Apple shipping a smartwatch. Well, the Macalope hopes you weren’t expecting much from it, because it’s already dooooomed.

Writing for the Motley Fool, Rick Aristotle Munarriz brings us “5 Reasons Why Apple’s iWatch Will Fail.”

You know, there’s something about this that seems sort of familiar. Hmm. What? Could? It? Be?

“Why the iPhone Will Fail” (Al Ries for AdAge in June of 2007).

“Why the Apple phone will fail, and fail badly” (Bill Ray for the Register in December of 2006).

“Apple iPhone Will Fail in a Late, Defensive Move” (Matthew Lynn for Bloomberg in January of 2007).

“The Apple phone flop” (Michael Kanellos for CNet in December of 2006).

“Open spectrum is why the iPhone will fail” (Dana Blankenhorn for ZDNet in June of 2007).

“Why Apple’s rumored iTablet will fail big time” (Randall Kennedy for InfoWorld in December of 2009).

“Why the iPad will fail to win significant market share” (Donovan Colbert for TechRepublic in February of 2010).

“Why the Apple iPad will fail in Australia” (Renai LeMay for ZDNet in April of 2010).

“Don’t Bet on Apple’s Tablet” (Scott Moritz interviewed by TheStreet in November of 2009).

And, finally, one of the Macalope’s favorites: “Rumored Apple Tablet Is a Train Wreck” (Michael Scalisi for PC World in July of 2009, five months before the iPad was announced and nine months before it would ship).

And that’s without picking the really low-hanging fruit because, heck, we don’t have all day.

So, before we dig in, let us just note that the history of people questioning the viability of new Apple products—often ones they haven’t seen or know little about—is rich and stupid. The Macalope’s not the hugest fan of the watch idea, but he learned long ago that it’s best to wait and see what something is before judging whether or not it’s going to be good.

Like alfalfa. First time his parents offered him some the Macalope said “ew.” Now he can’t get enough of the stuff. Munarriz has apparently not learned this basic mealtime lesson.

1. Watches are a hard sell for tech-savvy consumers

Stroll through the halls of a high school or a college campus and you just don’t see wristwatches these days. Who needs a one-dimensional watch when smartphones or even fitness bands can tell the time?

Sure. Because that’s all an Apple watch would do. Tell time.

Maybe this explains some of Munarriz’s previous Apple analysis. He has no idea what the company actually does.

2. Apple may not be the ideal disruptor

The moment that Apple breaks out its wrist hugger there will probably be smarter competition than it has faced in earlier introductions.

No, seriously, Munarriz is arguing that the competition in the smartwatch industry is just too much for Apple.

Oh, God, that may be the funniest thing the Macalope’s read, ever.

3. We can’t forget fitness

Until Cook resigns from Nike’s board given the conflict of interest, let’s assume that Apple’s not gunning for the fitness lifestyle market beyond possibly making Nike a default app.

Which is apparently a non-starter.

4. The iWatch may not be a jack of all trades

The iWatch will probably be more iPod than iPhone …

Turns out it’s hard to review products you haven’t seen and that may not even exist yet, because you have no idea what features they might have! Huh! Who would have thought?!

5. Apple will probably price itself out of the market

You know. Like it always does.

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