Bookmaker.com lays odds on potential CES announcements
By Lex Friedman, Macworld
What happens in Vegas gets bet on by everybody else. Bookmaker.com has released its betting odds for potential CES announcements this week.
First, a quick primer: When an oddsmaker says the odds of an event happening are +150 or 16 percent, the “+150” part refers to the return on the wager, and the percentage is the expected likelihood that the stated prediction will actually happen. (There’s a 16 percent chance I could have written this paragraph better, so if you bet $100 that I would do so, your wager pays off at $250—your original hundred, plus the 150.)
With that out of the way, Bookmaker.com says the odds that Verizon will announce an exact launch date for a CDMA iPhone are +250 or 28 percent. Odds that Macworld’s servers will buckle following such an announcement are closer to 88 percent.
Bookmaker.com places the odds that Motorola will unveil a 10-inch tablet at +300 or 25 percent; odds that I won’t buy one are approaching 100 percent.
The site places the odds that Samsung will debut its first Google TV at +400 or 20 percent; odds that no one will buy one are perhaps a surer bet than the one about me and a Motorola tablet. (That +400/20 percent matches the odds that Sony Ericsson will debut a PlayStation phone.)
Odds of a more intriguing HP/Palm tablet are +350 or 22 percent. Odds that you’ll be disappointed because Bookmaker.com offers no apparent way to actually wager on any of these items are -200/92 percent. Of course, if you’re a CES attendee and you’re really disappointed, we’re guessing you could find somewhere else to gamble in Nevada.
Finally, odds that this article is wrapping up a bit abruptly are also extremely good.