Specious reasoning


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As if you needed them, Forbes contributor Peter Cohan is here with: “Four Reasons To Avoid Apple Stock” (no link but tip o’ the antlers to John Molloy).

Well, the Macalope doesn’t condone the institutionalized gambling known more colloquially as “the stock market,” so he’s not here to tell you to get into AAPL, but let’s review Cohan’s … hmm, “reasoning” is the wrong word. Let’s say “comedic stylings.” That’s probably the most charitable thing to call it.

I see four reasons why investors should avoid the stock.

Apple declined to comment.

Well, to be fair, it may have been making a motion or hand gesture in response to your inquiry, just one that you couldn’t see.

Apple has some strengths.

“Some.” A smattering of strengths. A soupçon.

But it is no accident that Apple stock keeps falling.

No, no. Often it’s very deliberate manipulation.

So why should investors avoid Apple shares?

1. Tim Cook

Tell us about this total loser, Peter.

Under Cook, Apple has yet to introduce a new industry-transforming product.

And that’s the thing, the one thing that drags down the stock and drags down opinion about the company. And it’s crap. Why is it crap? Two reasons. First, it’s a standard that is applied to no other company. Second, it was six years between the iPod’s initial release and the release of the iPhone. Surprise, coming up with “industry-transforming” products takes time.

2. Weak new product portfolio

This is the same argument. You’re double-dipping, Peter. You couldn’t even come up with four separate reasons?

3. Losing market share

Yet retaining profit share.

4. Overvalued shares

Apple’s PE ratio is 13. Google’s is 29. Amazon’s is 56.

Oh, sorry, that’s a typo. Amazon’s is 561.

One thing that would change my views is to replace Tim Cook with a visionary CEO who can breathe new life into Apple’s innovation DNA.

Ooh, exciting. Who might that be?

Trip Chowdhry managing director of Global Equities …


… touts …

Oh. Man, don’t do that.

… Jonathan Rubenstein [sic]—who helped invent the iPod—for that slot. Can he take over where Steve Jobs left off?

Well, gosh, what has he done since leaving Apple?


Soooo … noooooooo. Probably not.

Chowdhry’s ridiculous comments about Apple are not about Apple. They’re about Chowdhry trying to get attention. The guy has an $800/share target for the company, which makes him an AAPL bull. The stuff that comes out of his mouth, however, is the stuff that comes out of the other end of the bull.

Again, the Macalope is certainly not telling anyone to get into AAPL. But certainly don’t get out of it for the reasons on Cohan’s list.

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