Yes, it’s just one more month until Google chairman Eric Schmidt’s magical six months are up, so it’s time to take another look at how it’s going.
Answer: Not. So. Good.
Remember, if you will, what Schmidt expected to happen over the course of six months. The primary dose of Schmidt craziness was claiming that developers would decide to ship apps on Android first, instead of iOS. The reasoning behind this was that Ice Cream Sandwich would spur developers to want to “get all up in that.” The problem is that Ice Cream Sandwich is, to date, installed on a whopping
4.9 percent of Android devices.
The Macalope is no math wiz, but even he knows that’s not a lot. It’s not even most of them! Uh … right? Carry the one … yeah, right!
If Apple had this problem it’d be called “Non-Updategate” or something.
Android’s got more problems than that, though. MG Siegler took a look at the recent market share numbers and comes to the conclusion that
Android’s either losing or only “winning” because Apple’s letting it. Siegler notes that the only reason Android got as far ahead as it did (in the U.S. at least) was because Apple was only on one carrier.
What if Apple finally puts the iPhone on T-Mobile later this year? Given what we now know—again, from actual data—is there any question that it becomes the top smartphone there? What about the other, smaller regional carriers? That’s already starting to happen.
Android’s only hope is to actually have a phone, or a set of phones, that are more appealing to consumers than the iPhone. But that hasn’t happened in the past four years, so what makes us think that will change this year?
Oh, come on, MG. There’s always a reason to think that the 7-inch 3D Android projector phones that are coming out next quarter will drive customers away from the iPhone. Apple’s failed to keep up in the feature war! Only a monstrous phone that you need oven-mitt-sized hands to operate will save them!
It’s not just devices and market share, though, that are keeping Schmidt’s fever dream from coming true. It’s more about results.
The Macalope doesn’t know whether this particular survey is correct, but there’s plenty of evidence it’s directionally correct. That’s why developers ship for iOS first. And why Schmidt’s going to have an uncomfortable June.
[Editors’ Note: In addition to being a mythical beast, the
Macalope is not an employee of Macworld. As a result, the Macalope is always free to criticize any media organization. Even ours.]