Bloomberg has declared “Shunning Apple Tops Long List of Bad Market Calls in 2014”. You know what that means.
Time to double down, baby!
Yes, according to Doug Kass, if at first you don’t succeed, short Apple, short Apple again. It’ll pay off eventually! Possibly not until the sun expands and engulfs our planet, but eventually!
I plan to more aggressively expand my short as we move into early 2015.
Good luck with your portfolio, Doug.
But you say to the Macalope, “Macalope, building a solid portfolio isn’t about luck. It’s about taking a logical approach to valuing a company’s worth without letting your preconceptions or emotions sway you.”
That is why the Macalope says to you, “Good luck with your portfolio, Doug.”
Given Apple strong November-to-December share-price advance, and with the recent all-time high back in sight, the consensus view on Apple’s shares is now almost universally bullish. But the areas of consensus are known to shift unbelievably quickly, as the bubbles of certainty are constantly exploding in the markets.
Dude, you are so wasted.
Recently, for the first time since my bearish call on Apple in September 2012, I adopted a negative view on Apple’s shares.
That was back in September of this year. And how’s that worked out? Oh, right, Apple’s shares are up 14 percent.
(Note: My 2012 call was followed by a near-45% drop in Apple’s share price in only a few months.)
It’s true. And that was followed by a steady climb after that. Is there any other industry in which people feel they can be judged by performance measurements that they get to set themselves?
Doctor: “Man, I am just acing it on Tuesday afternoons between 3:00 and 3:15.”
Nurse: “Well, maybe that would be the best time to schedule your surgeries rather than Mondays at 9:00 AM? Oh, God, so much blood...”
So, why did Kass take a negative view of Apple back in 2012?
Well, for starters, he led off with a quote from Steve Wozniak about Apple’s arrogance in not producing a larger phone. The Macalope would say it goes downhill from there, but it’s impossible to go downhill when you’re stuck in a ditch. So what Kass was really doing was more like digging straight down to the Earth’s core when he assumed Apple is somehow incapable of making a larger phone, lauded Samsung, seemed to think only Apple uses plants that have struggled with labor abuses, and finally blamed Apple customers for being hypocrites.
Doug, any 10-year-old who’s played Minecraft—which is to say every 10-year-old—could have told you you shouldn’t dig straight down.
...I do not believe either the Apple Watch or Apple Pay will contribute enough to fill the late-2015-to-early 2016 gap.
And Apple will produce absolutely nothing else over the next year and a half. Welp, that’s possible. Place your bets.