Those who do not study history: Apple devices are usually different


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There are many ways a device can fail. Writing for The Motley Fool, Tim Brugger finds a new one: By having other devices—devices it will actually compete against—fail.

“More Bad News for Apple Inc. Smart Watch” (tip o’ the antlers to @JonyIveParody)

More. There has already been much bad news for the Apple Watch and now there is even more. Facts are things you can read on the Internet. Provided you’re reading something other than the linked article.

It’s easy to find studies suggesting the market opportunity for wearables, and smartwatches in particular, is poised to explode. One such study estimates the smartwatch market will grow exponentially thanks to adoption in China, at some point in the near future, and will generate nearly $33 billion in annual revenue within five years.

Is that a lot? Apple generates $20 billion in iPhone revenue a quarter. Now.

This opportunity should be especially exciting for Apple fans as the iEverything maker prepares to join the likes of Google and Microsoft, taking the wraps off its much-anticipated Apple Watch in March.

I heard it was March so it’s probably March. I’m just gonna write “March.”

However, there is a major hurdle to overcome as these companies prepare to unveil their respective devices: Consumers don’t seem to care.

And parents just don’t understand!

Look, there’s an old saying about consumers: You can lead them to water but you can’t make them drink unless Apple has redefined water for them. Or something like that.

Based on recent research, neither push notifications nor health monitoring is of any interest to the vast majority of prospective consumers.

This, however, is only bad news for the Apple Watch and not every other watch because [jumps in car, drives away, changes name, lives rest of life under an assumed identity, admits on deathbed that, no, it was actually bad for every smartwatch]

Of the 2,200 smartwatch users surveyed, nearly a quarter hadn’t set their devices to receive any notifications, and a third had just one app downloaded for messages.

Soooooooo. Let’s see if the Macalope has this right. The current crop of smart watches is really lousy at their job. Which is bad news for the Apple Watch, which is coming out in the next few months and will compete with these oafish lumps of aluminum.

You know, Tim, one might actually argue that the study is good news for the Apple Watch. Just theoretically. Since current smartwatches suck so badly. Just a thought.

Half of the one in ten Americans that own a “smart” band no longer use them. And it gets worse—a contingent of 3,400 U.S. consumers were asked recently if they intended on buying a fitness band and if so, which one. A staggering 85% of those surveyed said they have no intention of buying a wearable device to monitor their health...

Go look at Apple’s product page for the Watch. Does that appear to be being marketed as a “fitness band”? It’s not. It’s being marketed as a fashion accessory.

The problem with the Apple Watch is the same as every other similar device...

For 2001 commentary, insert “iPod” for “Apple Watch.” For 2007 commentary, insert “iPhone” for “Apple Watch.” For 2010 commentary, insert “iPad” for “Apple Watch.”

Does the Macalope claim the Apple Watch will sell like silver dollar hotcakes? Well, maybe, because most hotcake sales are of the large variety. OK, bad analogy. The point is, studies of currently selling devices have no bearing on sales of an upcoming Apple device. If you didn’t notice this the first three times we went through it, then you’re not paying attention.

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