A heaping self-serving: Playing Apple stock games

AAPL's going down, says a guy who will make money if AAPL goes down.


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Hey, does everyone have a big-name news outlet where they can publish opinion pieces that just happen to help their own stock portfolios? No? Oh, you simply must get one.

Writing for CNBC, Dan Niles of AlphaOne Capital Partners (“AAA+++ Capital Partners” was taken) says “Forget new Apple products—THIS is the issue” (tip o’ the antlers to Tay Bass).


Let me start off by saying that I am a HUGE fan of Apple products.


What you need to know about this first paragraph is that Niles has absolutely no axe to grind against Apple. No whatsoever. He loves the company and is completely impartial in his judgement.

Well, OK, not completely impartial.

Having said all of the above, I am not a big fan of Apple’s stock currently.

Well, you kinda are, just in a bass-ackwards way.

Disclosure: AlphaOne and Dan Niles currently have a position(s) on Apple stock which benefits from a price decline.

Oh, cool disclosure, bro. Look for the Macalope’s upcoming editorial on why sending undisclosed cash payments to mythical man/antelope/Mac hybrids is simply the right thing to do.

The biggest reason for the slowdown in revenue growth was other smartphone vendors, particularly Samsung, were launching larger phones, which Apple refused to do. Memo to Cupertino: Bigger is better.

Actually, you know what’s better? iPhones are better.

Unfortunately, we do not see the new iPhones or other Apple products just released on Wednesday as having compelling enough features to drive revenue growth up year-over-year during the holiday season.

All the people pre-ordering iPhones seem to disagree with you.

Rose gold is unfortunately not my color…

Therefore, no one will like it. Is there a name for this form of egotism already or should we just start calling it Nilesian Myopia?

The biggest issue for Apple in the near term, however, is China.

Niles believes that the growth in China’s stock market fueled sales of Apple products. People saw their portfolios rise and ran out and bought a lot of Apple products. Therefore, the Chinese market’s recent drop will reverse Apple’s fortunes in China. Because everything is caused by the stock market.

Except for that rash, Larry. You know what caused that rash.

You know.

Niles’ argument smacks to the Macalope as the thinking of someone who makes their money in a much different way than the rest of us. See, most peoples’ disposable income comes from their salary, not their investments. This may come as a shock to the professional gamblers of Wall Street, so the Macalope apologizes if he’s said something offensive to their culture. Of course, it’s possible that a poor market could drive companies to downsize, but then better leading indicators for iPhone sales in China would clearly be employment and wages, not the fickle bets of Wall Street.

The Macalope’s not sure if Niles is being deliberately obtuse about this point but he is clearly taking this argument and trying to make a buck off of it by sending AAPL down. Pretty nice of CNBC to publish this for him. A+++ ALPHAONE SERVICE. WOULD PUBLISH SELF-SERVING PIECE AGAIN.

While a rising tide lifts all boats, Wall Street makes sure even lowering tides lift the yachts.

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