Certainties: Death, taxes and annual iPhone forecast cuts


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Stop the Macalope if you’ve heard this one.

OK, not literally. He doesn’t get paid if he doesn’t write a whole column. And alfalfa doesn’t get delivered for free. Somewhere, presumably, it grows free but the Macalope hasn’t figured out where that is yet.

But have you heard the very bad awful news? Yes, estimates of first calendar quarter iPhone X sales are being cut and it’s not at all like we go through this hand-wringing exercise every year, oh, wait, it’s exactly like that.

Anyway, here we are again. And that’s not the royal “we” because it turns out it’s not just the Macalope, it’s the same writer and the same source of negative quotes!

Writing for MarketWatch, Quentin Fottrell sings those old holiday favorites.

“Is this what iPhone fatigue looks like?” (Tip o’ the antlers to Philip Speicher.)

Sinolink Securities Co. analyst Zhang Bin, says the $1,000 price for the iPhone X may cut into first-quarter demand. Handset shipments of the X could be 35 million, 10 million less than what he expected for the first quarter, according to Bloomberg.

Last year Apple sold 50.8 million iPhones total during the first calendar quarter so maybe it’s just the Macalope but he thinks that even if they do sell “just” 35 million iPhone Xs, it still might be a good quarter.

The Macalope had to check the date on this fatiguing piece because here’s what Quentin Fottrell was saying back in 2012:

All that initial excitement over the first iPhone or iPad has quickly given way to what analysts are dubbing “upgrade fatigue”…

Well, the Macalope is certainly fatigued from something, that’s for sure, and it’s not all the leftover pie he’s been eating.

OK, it is partly all the leftover pie he’s been eating.

But how ‘bout those sources?


“Is the iPhone expensive? Yes,” [technology consultant Jeff] Kagan says. “It is overpriced? Yes.”


“Apple has lost their way in the marketing of the iPhone X and iPhone 8,” said technology consultant Jeff Kagan.

Kagan is like the Winter Soldier of negative Apple quotes. Just unthaw him every few years as needed.

As with many pieces about Apple, it is not sufficient to throw in the kitchen sink. You must rip out all the sinks and throw them in as well.

…there was no explanation as to what happened to the iPhone 9. That was a rare piece of confusing [sic] over Apple branding.

The next time you’re in an Apple Store and you see someone stumbling back and forth between tables, roaring in confusion like Frankenstein’s monster, grab them by the shoulders and yell into their face “THERE IS NO IPHONE 9, OK?!”

At any rate, if you’re worried about the iPhone, Flurry Analytics may have a balm for you.

“Apple Wins 2017 Smartphone Holiday Season.”

Also, remember, we go through this every year. Even if the pundits can’t seem to recall.

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