Sticking with it: iPhone X sales have to disappoint eventually


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It’s been an annoying year already what with covering all the nonsense about supposedly poor iPhone X sales. But, it’s nice that we can finally put that all to bed and get on with our lives by going back to enjoying…

“Apple shares to struggle over the next 12 months on weak iPhone X demand, Instinet says.” (Tip o’ the antlers to @designheretic and paul.)


Looks like the Macalope picked the wrong day to put back all those tables he flipped over during the last five months.

Nomura Instinet analyst Jeffrey Kvaal is like that Japanese man who makes art in Excel except all he can make are frowny faces.

Analysis of recent iPhone average selling prices — a key metric offering insight into the generations of iPhones being sold — implied a thinner mix of iPhone X volumes than hoped, analyst Jeffrey Kvaal said in a note to clients Monday.

Oh, nooo, Apple will take something less than 86 percent of the profit in the smartphone industry. Can a company even survive on, say, just 82 percent of the profit in the industry? Eh, why risk it? Better to sell your shares now.

Kvaal, who maintained his neutral rating on shares of the technology company, said part of the problem stems from a decline in the rate of phone upgrades…

Kvaal hasn’t, of course, seen what iPhones Apple will announce this fall. It’s rumored to be a pretty big revamp of the lineup, with as many as three models with iPhone X feature sets, but probably best to just say iPhone sales will be lousy for the next year. Remember, only negative rumors, like the bogus ones floated earlier this year about huge iPhone X production cuts due to soft sales, should be heeded.

The analyst sees Apple slumping 6 percent from last week's close to $175 over the next 12 months.

Duly noted.

It’s perfectly possible Kvaal is right. The days of spectacular growth in the smartphone market have gone the way of fidget spinners and it’s not like Wall Street has ever understood Apple anyway. That would mean that next year at this time, Apple’s share price would be back where it was in November of 2017.

Services revenue has consistently grown above 20 percent on an annualized basis, with recent strength in licensing, App Store, and AppleCare keeping the progress on track. Still, Kvaal isn't entirely convinced.

One gets the impression that Tim Cook could have a magical set of poly-sided dice that always make a saving throw and Kvaal still wouldn’t be entirely convinced.

Dungeon Master: “Sigh. Tim’s paladin makes the saving throw. Again.”

Kvaal: “Yeah, but he probably won’t make it the next time.”

Cook: “But… these are magical dice.”

Kvaal: “Yeah, I don’t know what that means.” 

OK, magical dice aren’t real. But after having five months of dire iPhone X sales predictions proven fabulously wrong, this analysis seems kind of unreal, too.

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