From bad to worse: Bad news leads to simplistic analysis

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Apple’s announcement of revised expectations for the most recently ended quarter was met in typical fashion with a flurry of slapdash analysis.

Writing for the Forbes contributor network and competitive back waxing circuit, Gordon Kelly provides almost one-stop shopping for ridiculous assertions about Apple’s downward revision.

“iPhone Sales Fears After Apple Slashes Estimates.” (Tip o’ the antlers to Uluroo.)

The leaks were right.

And it only took 10 years of breathless reporting on supply chain Apple doom rumors for them to finally be right! So, it was all worth it.

Last year these sources said Apple had cut iPhone X production by as much as 60 percent which was fantastically wrong, but who cares? They were right this year! All is for-… uh, well, not forgiven. More like forgotten.

Cook pins the blame on everything from macroeconomic challenges “in some markets”…

As if that’s a real thing! But clever people who write for the Forbes contributor network and store all of their excess bodily fluids in their basements so the government doesn’t get a hold of them recognize this type of base flimflammery when they see it.

Simply put, Apple under Cook has essentially delivered just two new iPhone designs in eight years: the iPhone 6 (which looked identical across four generations) and the iPhone X (which will look identical until 2020).

According to Kelly, the iPhone 5, 5C, the larger Plus and Max sizes and the iPhone XR all don’t count. Just 'cause, that’s why.

Meanwhile, rivals continue to innovate.

One of them innovated an exploding phone!

Oh, sorry. It is considered crass to mention the Galaxy Note 7 at the Forbes contributor network unless you are writing to praise Samsung for responding quickly to the problem.

Apple’s 2020 iPhone design has already been released by Samsung in 2018 and the notch is outdated with cut-outs, teardrops, pop-up and sliding cameras replacing it.

This is the point at the party where you just nod and say “Yes, if there’s one thing we can all agree on, it’s that hole-punches and teardrops and pop-out selfie cameras are definitely, uh, more innovative than notches.”

Then you whisper to your wife “Grab your coat, Martha, and make your way to the back door. I’m going out the bathroom window and I’ll meet you at the car. When you get out the door, run. Run as fast as you can. I love you.”

All of which speaks to a wider concern: Apple has little up its sleeve to fix this.

Let’s contrast this with some better criticism. Because Apple definitely made mistakes here. This piece by Ben Thompson manages to cover the mistakes Apple made—which are mostly, but not all, related to China—while explaining the ways the company can avoid them in the future and pointing out that while it’s bad, it’s not a complete catastrophe.

Which, you know, you might get from Apple’s new guidance being toward it having just its second best quarter ever rather than its best ever. You might get that, unless you were busy drooling over cut-outs and pop-up cameras.

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