Long-time readers of the Macalope’s work will know that a favorite Apple doom scenario of his is the dreaded iPhone production cuts.
The traditional appearance of these cuts is around December when Apple would normally cut back on production after the surge in sales when new models are introduced. But since this is Apple news we’re talking about, it has to be bad. Thus, any production cuts are because nobody likes iPhones.
That’s just science.
Like the Macalope said, these rumors usually come around December, but we live in strange times. Times when Christmas for Apple doomsayers comes in July.
While demand for the next generation iPhone is looking to be high, the hectic supply chain continues to disrupt the market. According to DigiTimes, Apple is cutting iPhone 14 orders by 10%, despite expecting strong demand for its lineup.
Is it really a “cut” if someone can’t supply demand? When you go to the hot dog stand and you say “I’d like one hundred hot dogs!” and Gus, the guy who runs the hot dog stand, says “Oof, I’m sorry, I just can’t make that many hot dogs, even using snouts and ears. I can give you… ninety hot dogs right now. How about that?” Do you then say “WELL! I shall CUT MY ORDER BY 10 PERCENT!”? Gus is going to look at you funny. And he’s done time. He’s seen things.
Hot dogs are one thing, but does Apple think that if people can’t buy an iPhone 14 on day one they’re just going to flip some tables in the Apple Store and go home and never buy an iPhone 14? DigiTimes seems to think so, but DigiTimes thinks a lot of weird things.
One of them being, apparently, that Apple is already “cutting” orders for the iPhone 14. Because not everyone agrees this is a thing.
…analyst Ming-Chi Kuo says that “Apple’s slight adjustments for iPhone shipment forecasts (single-digit increase/decrease) are common, including new models before mass productions.”
So, if Apple is changing its orders, it’s probably not by much and it’s perfectly normal.
…“if a supply chain issue causes a significant change in the shipment plan of the new iPhones before mass production, Apple usually postpones the orders instead of cutting them.”
Right?! It’s as if DigiTimes thinks Apple is just going to give up and go sulk in its room for six months instead of take peoples orders and then just make them wait to get the phones… like it does every year.
Kuo is on record as believing that the iPhone 14 will see stronger demand in China compared to the iPhone 13, as certain distributors, retailers and scalpers have already made “the highest prepaid deposit[s] ever” for the new devices. Apple is highly unlikely to sob “Oh, what’s the use?!”, slam its bedroom door and crank up the emo rock even if it’s faced with some supply chain problems.
Plus, that’s the Macalope’s signature move. Everyone knows that.
It’s certainly possible that it might take a little longer to get an iPhone 14, so it’s something to consider if you’re thinking about upgrading this year. But it doesn’t look like overall sales are going to be negatively impacted.
At least not until the regular December production cuts come around. Then… whoo… then we’ll know that the iPhone 14 was a flop for sure.